The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 11 MAY 2025

Trend Watch: Global Markets & Portfolio Strategy Benchmarks

Your editor is traveling, and so today’s update will be brief. The main point to note after last week’s trading: the short trend indicator for the global asset allocation ETFs flipped to risk-on for the first time since March. Is this all-clear signal? Maybe, but until the medium-term signal confirms the switch, I’m inclined to view the bounce in markets cautiously amid ongoing turbulence.

Here’s how the aggressive allocation strategy’s short-term risk risk signal has evolved this year:

The continuation of risk-off for the medium-term outlook, however, is casting doubt on the revival of late. If the rebound is more than a short-term change, we’ll see confirmation via a flip to risk-on for the medium-term risk signal:

For investors with longer horizons, looking through the recent noise still makes sense:

The mixed-signals for the near-term outlook will clear soon, one way or the other. Stay tuned. ■