Hi James, I really like your article! It certainly made me think, so, 2 comments [1] about that retired Russian leader saying "other countries" will/might give Iran nuclear warheads" probably needs more thought. Such as - Who are these "other countries?" Its a very short list, and I don't think any of the big powers would want to start a nuclear war. And [2] I asked my AI tool to research war periods and market returns over the past 200 years for UK, Holland, US and Japan, and it came up with this: in 100% of situations tested, the markets initially has high volatility and a drawdown but after a period of adjustment, carried on with no further major drawdowns.
Hi, Dave. Yes, I agree that it seems unlikely that a nuclear power would give nuclear weapons to Iran, but maybe the transfer of civilian-nuclear power capabilities (so-called) is more likely. Russia comes to mind, given that it has the most to lose re: regime change in Iran. As for markets, yes, history suggests there are short and sometimes steep selloffs that soon rebound. The long-term history for equities (US in particular) is don't bet against beta, at least not for too long.
Hi James, I really like your article! It certainly made me think, so, 2 comments [1] about that retired Russian leader saying "other countries" will/might give Iran nuclear warheads" probably needs more thought. Such as - Who are these "other countries?" Its a very short list, and I don't think any of the big powers would want to start a nuclear war. And [2] I asked my AI tool to research war periods and market returns over the past 200 years for UK, Holland, US and Japan, and it came up with this: in 100% of situations tested, the markets initially has high volatility and a drawdown but after a period of adjustment, carried on with no further major drawdowns.
Hi, Dave. Yes, I agree that it seems unlikely that a nuclear power would give nuclear weapons to Iran, but maybe the transfer of civilian-nuclear power capabilities (so-called) is more likely. Russia comes to mind, given that it has the most to lose re: regime change in Iran. As for markets, yes, history suggests there are short and sometimes steep selloffs that soon rebound. The long-term history for equities (US in particular) is don't bet against beta, at least not for too long.